Two recent stories from Multichannel News provide a graphic illustration of how bumpy the road to digital television has become.

The first story was posted yesterday, and details how the Fox network feels the FCC is overreaching its authority by proposing a requirement that all TV stations air public service announcements (PSA) about the upcoming shutdown of analog TV broadcasts on February 17, 2009.

Apparently Fox feels this mandate would violate the First Amendment rights of broadcasters, and would also have a negative impact on the bottom line as some of these PSAs would cut into valuable prime time ad revenue.

This story certainly shows how far we’ve come from the FCC’s Fairness Doctrine (1949) and Equal Time rules (Section 315 of the Communications Act of 1934), both of which could be construed nowadays as infringing on broadcaster’s First Amendment rights. The difference? Back then, the only way to get TV was through terrestrial broadcasts, and no one dared step on the FCC’s cape in fear of losing a license that was up for renewal.

Today, with network programming available over cable, optical fiber, through satellites and on the Internet, it’s a much different story. The slow but steady deregulation of television (and radio) broadcasting over the years, coupled with a general decline in TV viewing, has shifted broadcasters’ focus away from "community interest" to the bottom line.

The current preponderance of outlets for TV programming may explain the results behind the second story. The Consumer Electronics Association revealed that, in a recent study, 22% of consumers who receive only terrestrial analog (NTSC) television plan to "do nothing" before or after the 2/17/09 deadline, so that they can continue to watch TV.

That’s an astounding figure. The fact that one-fifth of terrestrial-only TV homes don’t have any plans to upgrade to digital TV reception could mean that those folks either don’t watch much TV to begin with, or are so confused by the expanding world of digital media choices that they’ve simply given up.

The story didn’t indicate the age group of those respondents, either. My guess is, a fair number of them were older viewers who remember the "good old days’ when you attached a TV antenna to your chimney to watch The Twilight Zone, The Ed Sullivan Show, or Bonanza (OK, I’m really dating myself here).

In the same survey, another 22% said they’d subscribe to cable or satellite TV, 33% said they’d buy a new integrated digital TV, and the remaining 33% indicated they’d use the NTIA $40 coupons to pick up a universal DTV converter box. If those numbers are true, there may not be as much demand for the NTIA coupons as originally thought.

Another factor that wasn’t discussed but should be considered is the projected cost of a new TV set 15 months from now. Best Buy has an Insignia (house brand) 32-inch LCD model currently on sale for $600, while a Westinghouse Digital 26-inch model with built-in DVD player was advertised for $550 in the same flyer.

It’s not unreasonable to expect TV prices to decline by another 30 - 40% between now and 2/17/09, which would put the cost of a 32-inch LCD set at well under $400, and a 26-inch model close to $300.

At that point in time, how much interest would there be in purchasing a DTV converter for an older CRT TV, instead of a brand-new flat-panel HDTV with integrated tuner? Possibly enough to move quite a few of those "do nothings" into the "buy a new DTV" camp…

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