Four TV stations in Wilmington, NC conducted a "soft test" of the analog-TV shutoff, on August 19, and the participating broadcasters described the tests as "successful." For one minute at 7:30pm, TV viewers in the market saw a simulated analog shutdown, with snowy picture and a message that included the following: "This is a 60-second test shutoff of Wilmington’s analog television signals. If you can see this message, this television set needs to be upgraded to digital before September 8, 2008, at noon, when Wilmington commercial TV stations go all digital."

Aldo Cugnini
Analyst

The stations - selected by the FCC to be a test market — will terminate analog broadcasting on Sept. 8, and included WECT, WWAY, WSFX and WILM, a low-power station. The remainder of the country will switch to fully digital signals on February 17 of next year. According to information from the NAB, Nielsen estimates that 8.8% of the Wilmington market, or 15,450 homes, relies exclusively on free over-the-air broadcast TV. The No. 135 DMA apparently went through the test without a single viewer reporting trouble with their television. "We’re extremely comfortable," WWAY general manager Andy Combs said. "The feedback we’re getting here in the market has been positive."

Other broadcasters have already conducted similar tests. WHO in Des Moines, Iowa scheduled a 19-hour digital-conversion test today from 5 a.m.- midnight. A few months ago, NBC affiliate KVBC put up a simulated "static snow" image during its newscasts, with a message instructing confused viewers to call the DTV transition phone number for info. The station received one phone call.

Some groups are cautioning that the tests may yield false positive results, however. A Consumers Union website is expressing concerns that the Wilmington venue is not typical of the rest of the country, in part because of the intense broadcaster, government and media attention that is being paid there. The National Journal also reports that local residents are benefiting from stepped-up efforts by retailers. And Michael Copps, the FCC Commissioner who originated the idea of test marketing the DTV switch, said he would have preferred more test runs to assure a greater variety of demographics and geography, along with more nationwide funding and planning. Nevertheless, Copps says the country is better off with an imperfect dress rehearsal than none, according to the Journal.

The FCC, however, recently announced that five members of the FCC will individually visit 81 markets to host public meetings about the nationwide transition. Commission chairman Kevin Martin, said the markets are those the agency believes are "most at risk" because they represent a large number of people who may not be prepared for the shutoff. The list includes the country’s biggest metro areas such as New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston.

Notwithstanding the criticism, viewers appear to be preparing in growing numbers. TV shipments for North America hit record growth levels in Q2′08 (as reported here last week), despite a weaker U.S. economy, with TV shipments rising 28 percent compared to Q2′07, to more than 9.3 million units. And CEA reports that North American sales of plasma and LCD displays are "exploding as consumers race to beat the February 2009 DTV transition," something we predicted here nearly a year ago.

In the end, there are growing indications that the transition will occur without any train wreck, and with mostly successful results, together with a handful of isolated problems for those over-the-air viewers who have not cared about or understood the effect the transition will have on them. If they will truly be caught unawares, they should still have time to get a subsidized converter box. More likely, all the noise being stirred up should ensure that no one is "left behind."