I am visiting Taiwan to discuss pico/pocket/ultraportable projectors with solid-state light sources (let’s just call them low lumen projectors) and stereoscopic 3D. Today, I’ll focus on low lumen projectors, and what I have learned about new products and shipments is quite encouraging.

Chris Chinnock
Senior Analyst and Editor
for Insight Media

For example, by October, expect to see 50-lumen DLP-based projectors using LED illumination for around $399. By Christmas, a 100-lumen version should arrive at $449 to $499. These projectors will feature SVGA resolution and will be offered by PC makers as a laptop accessory.

Other, lower lumen products are coming using LCoS technology. Two companies I met with say they now have combined orders for about 50K projectors using a single Himax color filter LCOS panel and a white LED. These units output about 10 lumens and the image quality is not all that terrific, especially the colors.

However, they are also fairly inexpensive. One model will feature resolution of 640×360 (quarter 720) and will retail for $249 to $299, maybe even getting as low as $199 for efficient channels. The other offers VGA resolution.

Another prototype version of the VGA Himax panel with a white LED offers a USB interface. The cable actually has two USB connectors tethered together to get enough power from the host device.

Coming to market by October will be a pico projector/PMP player combo that also includes about a 3-inch direct-view LCD display. This unit offers a field-sequential LCOS panel powered by RGB LEDs outputting about 10 lumens. The image quality from this device is a significant step up from the Himax projectors, but it costs a bit more. Nevertheless, expect to see this one for $449 to $499.

I looked at all these demos in my hotel room with the window in back of me providing a fair amount of ambient light. The images were visible and usable. They won’t impress display experts, but for consumers, this novel projection capability may be quite acceptable. The only way we will know is by seeing how the market reacts.

On the other hand, we also need to see a strong marketing effort from a tier 1 brand to really see if these products have legs. If such products don’t gain much attention when launched on a slim marketing budget by a tier 3 brand, is this a fair assessment of the viability of the category? I think not. But if they succeed under such circumstances, that will tell you something.

Insight Media has been developing a sophisticated cost and throughput model for these projectors and our model suggests a bright future for these products. Rapidly increasing efficiency of LED and falling prices will really increase the value proposition going forward. And, if lasers of various power levels can be offered at the breakthrough prices we hope, then the competitiveness of these devices will increase further.

The path to 300, 500 and 700 lumen projectors with solid-state light sources is there. While most are focused on lower lumen products in the short term, this is an exciting category that is just getting started. You ain’t seen nothing yet.