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Is Digital TV Behind the Curve?

January 5th, 2009

News Item: Broadcast loses more ground to cable! Viewership of broadcast TV networks was down 9% overall in 2008 from 2007.

News Item: LG Electronics is the first to unveil ‘broadband HDTVs’ that instantly stream movies from Netflix allowing members to watch movies directly on new LG plasma and LCD HDTVs.

With all of the news about the impending analog TV shutdown on February 17, it would appear that there’s another TV story that’s not getting the coverage it deserves: A change in the way Americans watch television programming.

The VCR could be the most significant paradigm shift of the 1980s, while the DVD format essentially led the charge to digital, widescreen, and high-definition TV in the 1990s. But their collective impact may be trumped in the 21st century by a two-headed monster - broadband Internet, and digital video recorders (DVR).

Digital video programming can be delivered anywhere there’s a wired or wireless connection. All it takes is bandwidth; something the mainstream Internet didn’t have much of until the past five years.

Now, broadband is ubiquitous in urban and suburban areas. And the slow but steady adoption of DVRs has elevated the terms "time-shifting" and "place-shifting" to a prominent part of our everyday lexicon.

Analog Banner 11 - Digipots

Back in the day, we dreamed of being able to watch 24/7 sports, news, weather, or other specialty programming, instead of the limited offerings from local TV broadcasters. Recently, cable subscribers tired of ever-increasing monthly subscription charges have fantasized about a la carte channel viewing, streaming TV programs directly from Web sites while dumping dozens of unwanted cable channels.

It looks like that day may finally be at hand. But like all truly significant paradigm shifts, a transition away from traditional TV viewing won’t happen overnight. The switch has to be easy for the average viewer, who needs a high-speed Internet connection in their home. And their TV must be equipped with either an external DVR, such as those sold by TiVo, VuDu, Apple TV, or Moxie, or have an Internet connection built-in, such as the ones LG will demonstrate at CES this week (with other brands to undoubtedly follow).

TV viewing habits are largely shaped by generation. My grandfather was happy to get two black-and-white channels in Watertown, NY back in the 1950s and 1960s. (He wasn’t much of a TV fan, anyway.) My father couldn’t stop fiddling with the multi-button cable TV box at our home in northern New Jersey that arrived in the late 1970s.

I’ve pretty much moved seamlessly from VCRs to DVDs to TiVo (and SD to HD) over the past three decades, and just started downloading programs in November from Amazon’s UnBox service (Season 2 of Dexter, since I don’t get Showtime via cable).

And my children, who represent the fourth generation of TV viewers in my family, are completely format-neutral when it comes to TV. Steaming, downloads, terrestrial, cable, DVDs — they don’t care; they just want to watch TV shows and movies on their own terms.

This slow (and likely inevitable) shift away from traditional TV viewing will have a major impact on everyone’s bottom line. Cable, satellite, and fiber optic service providers stand to lose big bucks as traditional channel package subscriptions languish, but at least they’ll still have the monthly broadband revenue stream.

The same can’t be said for terrestrial broadcasters, who depend heavily on local and national advertising for cars, beauty products, prescription drugs, financial services, groceries, and apparel, and who have no "plan B" other than cable and satellite retransmission agreements.

As we approach February 17, keep in mind that we’re not just closing one chapter in the history of television; we’re also starting a new chapter. More pages will surely be written at CES, but how will it end?

HDTV Expert