Have you ever heard of the Hindenburg Omen? If you are following the investment news more closely, by now you have heard of this technical market analysis that throws together a whole bunch of market indicators that predict a stock market crash in September of this year. By now you have figured out that the title refers to the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) opening today. Yes we have crossed (downward) the psychological barrier of 10,000 for the first time since early July 2010 (and before that in June and May and February). It seems that we are between 10,000 and 11,000 points for the whole year of 2010.

Norbert Hildebrand
Insight Media Analyst

In the attached picture we see the development of the DJI of the last 9 years. Compared to the 2009 crash, the recent development and even the downturn after September 11, 2001 are relatively minor corrections. If the Hindenburg Omen becomes reality we could see another major dip in the stock market.

What does this have to do with displays you ask? For starters the 2010 Christmas season is starting to take shape and several analysts and associations have updated their 2010 forecast based on the overall economic development in 2010. CEA has recently stated that the US CE shipment revenue will reach $174.9 billion in 2009 and reach an all-time high of $182 billion in 2011. Other analysts are very bullish on display-based devices ranging from TVs to e-Readers/Tablets and Smartphones, predicting record sales for the holiday season.

With all the display and device manufacturers trying to produce the right amount of goods for the holidays, the Hindenburg Omen could become a real headache for the total market. If it becomes reality the consumer confidence may take another hit and the optimistic outlook of many may turn sour very quickly. On the other hand the economy may actually be stronger than expected and we could even exceed the positive outlooks.

This is the interesting part of the Hindenburg Omen — If you believe in it (the guy who came up with it did pull his investments out of the market) the industrial development may be completely opposite of what everyone is forecasting. This is the time for market analysts to take sides, with some of them on either side. Whoever picks the right side will later say, "I told you so!" If you are in the forecasting business, did I make you nervous? Here is another little tidbit of information to confuse you even more; the Hindenburg Omen has only 24% accuracy for predicting a major stock crash. If anyone has a reliable crystal ball please let me know what will happen.